Research

Working Papers

  • [1801]

    Gerard Llobet, Jorge Padilla

    Conventional Power Plants in Liberalized Electricity Markets with Renewable Entry

    Abstract

    This paper examines the optimal capacity choices of conventional power generators after the introduction of renewable production. We start with a basic and generally accepted model of the liberalized wholesale electricity market in which firms have insufficient incentives to invest and we illustrate how the entry of renewable generation tends to aggravate that problem. We show that the incentives to invest in firm capacity (e.g. conventional thermal plants) may be restored by means of a capacity auction mechanism. That mechanism is vulnerable and, hence, may prove ineffective unless governments can credibly commit not to sponsor the entry of new capacity outside the auction mechanism. We explain that such commitment may be particularly difficult in the current political context where energy policy is conditioned by environmental and industrial-policy goals. We finally propose a way to enhance the credibility of capacity auctions by committing to optimally retire idle (conventional) power plants in response to entry outside the auction.


  • [1802]

    Gabriele Fiorentini, Enrique Sentana

    Consistent non-Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators

    Abstract

    We characterise the mean and variance parameters that distributionally misspecified maximum likelihood estimators can consistently estimate in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models. We also provide simple closed-form consistent estimators for the rest. The inclusion of means and the explicit coverage of multivariate models make our procedures useful not only for GARCH models but also in many empirically relevant macro and finance applications involving VARs and multivariate regressions. We study the statistical properties of our proposed consistent estimators, as well as their efficiency relative to Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood procedures. Finally, we provide finite sample results through Monte Carlo simulations.


  • [1803]

    Enrique Sentana

    Volatility, diversification and contagion

    Abstract

    In this paper I describe in detail the concepts of volatility, diversification and contagion, three basic keys to understand the seemingly whimsical behaviour of financial markets. The presentation is deliberately non-technical and largely self-contained, with most required concepts defined along the way. Nevertheless, the analysis is mostly empirically oriented, with an emphasis on the methods that have been proposed to measure those concepts and a discussion of the stylised facts that the resulting measures imply. I also use those measures to study the effects of the financial crisis of 2007-2008 and the euro sovereign debt crisis of 2010-2012 on Spain.


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